SYLLABUS

GS-3: Disaster and disaster management 

Context: According to the Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2025 Delhi, Karachi, Shanghai, Dhaka, Manila, Seoul, and other such densely built Asian megacities could face an additional 2-7 degrees Celsius spike in local temperatures on top of global warming, by the end of century.

Global Findings

• Rising Temperatures and Extreme Events: 

o Rising temperatures are increasing disaster risks across Asia-Pacific, including floods, storms, droughts, desertification, and sand/dust storms, with extreme heat emerging as the fastest-growing threat.

o South and Southwest Asia face the highest heat risks, with large populations exposed to severe heat stress.

o The year 2024 was the hottest on record; for instance, a heatwave in Bangladesh affected around 33 million people.

o Increased atmospheric moisture (7% per 1°C warming) is driving more frequent and intense storms in places like Bangladesh, Samoa, and Myanmar.

• Health, Economic, and Labour Impacts

o Heat-related economic losses from reduced productivity are expected to double to over 8 million full-time job equivalents by 2030.

o Labour productivity could fall by up to 27% under extreme heat.

• Glacier Loss, GLOF Risks, and Water Vulnerability

o Regional glaciers have already lost about 5% of their volume this century.

o Glacial Lake Outburst Floods threaten 9.3 million people in High Mountain Asia.

• Agriculture and Food System Impacts

o Agriculture absorbed over 25% of global climate disaster losses between 2008 and 2018.

o Drought and desertification are reducing crop and livestock productivity, especially in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh.

• Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Threats: Sea levels are rising fastest in Pacific islands and East/North-East Asia, driven by oceans absorbing 91% of excess global heat.

• Regional Climate Risk Hotspots: The Pacific, Southeast Asia, and East/North-East Asia face the highest overall climate risks, with countries such as Myanmar, Iran, American Samoa, and Turkiye among the worst affected.

• Early Warning Gaps: 

o Only about half of global meteorological services issue heat warnings.

o Expanding heat-warning systems to 57 additional countries could save around 100,000 lives each year.

India related Findings: Specific Vulnerabilities 

• Extreme Heat and Health Risks: 

o India is among five Asia-Pacific countries facing consistently high agricultural heat stress.

o Under severe climate scenarios, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh could face over 300 days a year with heat index above 35°C, and many areas could exceed 200 days above 41°C.

o The 2024 heatwave in India caused about 700 deaths, making it the second deadliest in the region.

o Urban heat islands in cities like Delhi intensify exposure, especially for outdoor workers, children, and the elderly, and strain access to cooling, water, and healthcare.

• Glacier Melt and Water Security: Melting glaciers in High Mountain Asia pose risks to water, food, and energy security, including threats from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).

• Extreme Rainfall and Disaster Vulnerability:  

o Heavy monsoon rains in Kerala in 2024 triggered landslides that killed over 350 people, underscoring dangers from extreme precipitation.

o By 2060, India is projected to experience a significant rise in extreme rainfall, heightening flood and landslide risks.

Implications

• Health: Extreme heat stresses the human body and worsens diseases, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations and straining healthcare systems.
• Economy: Earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and storms threaten vital infrastructure (transport, energy, water, telecom, schools, hospitals). Heat stress lowers labour output, doubling lost working hours by 2030.
• Agriculture: Rising heat reduces crop yields, livestock productivity, and work capacity, deepening rural poverty. Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh face the highest agricultural heat risks.
• Energy: Heat raises electricity demand for cooling, with air-conditioner energy use expected to triple by 2050. High temperatures reduce power generation efficiency and increase strain on power plants.

Source:
Down to Earth
Down to Earth 
Unescap