Highlights of the FindingsSection

Details

Study 1: Cyclones and Ecosystem Risk

Methodology

·       CLIMADA, an open-source risk modelling platform, was used. 

·       Timeframes: 1980–2017 (historical), 2015–2050 (projected under SSP5-8.5) 

·       Datasets: STORM-B, STORM-C (synthetic cyclone tracks), Holland model (simulated wind fields)

Terrestrial Ecoregion Classification

·       Resilient: Frequently exposed, recovers quickly

·       Dependent: Regularly disturbed, cyclone-shaped dynamics

·       Vulnerable: Rarely disturbed, recovers slowly if exposed

Key Findings

·        

·       Of world’s 844 ecoregions, 290 are already affected by tropical cyclones. 200 more are vulnerable and 26 resilient.

·       Even in resilient ecoregions, recovery time from storms could drop from 19 years (1980-2017) to 12 years (2015-2020) for high-intensity storms.

·       Most of these shifts may be in East Asia, Central America, and the Caribbean which have abundance of resilient or dependent regions.

Study 2: Impact on Mangroves

Methodology

·       Used a probabilistic spatially explicit risk index (measures the odds of an event and its expected spatial distribution)

·       Scenarios analysed: SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5

·       Evaluated components:

o   Hazard (cyclone wind speeds and frequencies)

o   Vulnerability (mangrove’s adaptability to sea-level rise)

o   Exposure (mangroves’ overlap with high-hazard zones)

Risk Indicators

·       Mangroves at risk if cyclone frequency doubles or newly exposed to storms

·       Ecosystem services at risk: carbon sequestration, coastal protection, fish stock

Ecological Impacts

·       Increasing Risk for Mangroves Ecosystems: Up to 56% of mangrove areas worldwide could be at high to severe risk by 2100 in the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

o   Southeast Asia is expected to be the most affected:

ü  52–78% of mangroves at high risk.

·       Possible irreversible transformation of some ecosystems

·       Cyclone belts may shift away from the equator, exposing unadapted ecosystems in higher latitudes to new threats

Recommendations

·       Include long-term recovery time in risk assessments

·       Risk-sensitive conservation planning 

·       Incorporate shifting disturbance regimes in decision-making